Readings
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August 1
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July 1
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June 1
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May 1
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April
1
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| Dow
Jones Industrial Average: |
10552 (+0.7% from previous month) |
10448 (-1.9% from previous
month) |
10652 (-1.5% from
previous month) |
10812 (-1% from previous
month) |
10980 |
| NASDAQ: |
3767 (-5% from previous) |
3966
(+10.7% from previous) |
3582
(-9.5% from previous month; -19.7% since April 1) |
3958 (-12%) |
4458 |
| Unemployment
Rate: |
4.0% |
4.1% |
4.1% |
3.9% |
4.1% |
| Inflation
(CPI): |
3.7% |
3.1% |
3.7% |
3.7% |
3.2% |
| Price of
Oil: |
$27.43 per barrel |
$32.72 per
barrel |
$30.13 per
barrel |
$25.87 per
barrel |
$26.90 per
barrel |
| Monthly Trade
Deficit: |
$31.0 billion |
$30.4
billion |
$30.2
billion |
$29.2
billion |
$28.0
Billion |
| Political Flap of the
Day: |
Policy differences drift into the ether, leaving big disputes over procedure: whether the Democrats are fighting too dirty, and whether the Republicans look too much like fakes. Background complaint against Democrats involves Al Gore's tough-guy attack mode. Foreground complaint is Bill Clinton's ridiculing of emerging Bush dynasty even when -- gasp! the lack of manners! -- the Republican convention is underway. Complaint against the Republicans involves that very convention, where the diversity of speakers and performers seems ill-matched to the realities of the party's delegates and its platform.
Background theme from the press: outright glee that undisguised rancor between Clinton and elder Bush has given the race a Mario Puzo-esque element of dynastic contention.
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What's not a flap? Many
of them piling up as campaigning gets more serious, like sailboats
jockeying for position before the starting gun. Gasoline prices.
Abortion rulings, and therefore Supreme Court nominations. Also
prayer and gay-rights rulings. The death penalty, in theory and as
practiced in Texas. Turmoil within Justice Department about
investigating Gore's fund-raising activities. Continued rise in
prescription drug prices. Even more amazing continued rise in
federal-surplus estimates, with consequent argument over whether the
surplus will be real and what to do with it if it is.
One
issue that will look amazing in retrospect but is barely being
debated at the moment: total elimination of the estate
tax.
Meanwhile, previous hot items -- guns, China, and of
course Elián -- on hiatus, Elián probably for
keeps. |
Several came and went
during the month without retaining full "flap" status as of June 1.
Ten days earlier, permanent trading rights for China seemed the most
complexly divisive issue of the campaign so far. Clinton
Administration, George W. Bush, and congressional Republicans on one
side; labor and labor's man, Al Gore, on the other. (Gore was
officially for the bill, meanwhile winking hard at labor.) But when
the bill passed with a surprisingly comfortable margin, Gore was
plunged back into Elián territory. That is, for political
purposes he'd kept his distance from the Administration and ended up
looking like he'd postured for no reason, as his side lost the vote
and the PR battle. Gun control also rose and fell within the month,
with the Million Mom March (and counter-efforts by the NRA).
Microsoft controversy becoming more and more about Microsoft rather
than about the Administration's management of the tech economy. Bush
proposals on Social Security have emerging flap status.
|
What was that kid's name, again? For several
days after the bloodless-but-frightening commando raid Elián
seemed to have potential as a lasting issue. But outrage and
attention dwindled, and Republicans grew antsy even about holding
hearings. Headed for complete non-factor status by Election Day.
Instead a pileup of issues with political potential: the Microsoft
breakup; guns in general, highlighted by the Million Mom March;
Social Security reform yet again; trade relations with China; and
the strange growth of Clinton nostalgia. |
Elián Gonzalez: Initially a balance between family
values and political freedom. By now a bizarre test of federal
authority: will Miami officials really urge defiance of federal
marshals if the INS says Elián belongs back with his father?
Op-ed column in The New York Times calls Miami "out-of-control
banana republic" inside the United States. Bill Clinton and Janet
Reno, neither running for re-election, support INS and judicial
rulings to repatriate Elián. |
| Candidates' Positions on Current Flap: |
Bush: Convention is obviously the moment of unveiling the new, improved, general-election version of the candidate. Opening speeches strike three themes: "Big Tent" party, welcoming minorities, gays, sinners, and so on; "steady hand at the tiller" supporting cast of familiar figures around untested candidate, epitomized by Dick Cheney as VP; "it was good enough for the Adamses and the Roosevelts, so why not for the Bushes?" embrace of dynastic succession, rather than pretending that this would be the first President George Bush.
Gore: This is his moment out of the limelight. Two advantages to his position right now: gets to choose a VP, and a tone for convention rhetoric, after watching what the GOP comes up with. And, has rare luxury of letting a sitting President, and rhetorical whiz, be his attack dog, tweaking the Bushes on the riding-on-daddy's-coattails theme.
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Bush: Not a lot of
forward movement on any of these fronts. Spent the month largely
waiting for Gore to trip over himself -- and over the pack of hostile
reporters, and over the disaffected Greens. Bush's big moment was
seeming furrow-browed as the execution of Gary Graham went forward.
Danger had been appearing flippant about this execution, as he had
about previous ones.
Gore: Playing defense on
scandal, hoping short attention span will make it go away, and
offense on a variety of populist issues: inquiry on rising gas
prices, assault on pharmaceutical
companies. |
Bush: He let China
debate unfold without deep engagement, and let NRA fight back against
Million Moms. Bush realizes that Charlton Heston's declaration of war
on Al Gore is probably Gore's best news of the month. Under pressure
to be more specific about Social Security
plans.
Gore: Hopes no one mentions China again for
the rest of the year. Crucial hope is Social Security -- the more
volatile the market in the next few months, the stronger the
background queasiness about putting Social Security funds there.
Meanwhile, opening new charm offensive with proposals for
mental-health care and cancer programs. |
Bush: Most of these issues cutting his way right now.
Last month's Elián flap all to the good from his point of view:
he was consistent, but not so far out on a limb as to be embarrassed
by success of raid. Bush is in good shape on Microsoft -- if it
drives a market crash, he can blame it on the Democrats -- and he's
losing no support by backing China trade. Guns are his big problem,
threatening his appeal to center and women's vote.
Gore: Gore caught in triple back-flip pander on the
Elián issue: first changed his position to appeal to Florida
Cubans; then criticized his own Administration when the raid looked
like it would cause a stink; then was left somewhat chagrined by that
stand as the issue went away. Lying low on Microsoft and praying
(perhaps to Buddhist deities) that it does not prove to be the domino
that undoes the 1990s boom. Sticking with the Administration on
China. Pushing hard to portray Bush as the pawn of the NRA, and as
the agent of a "secret plan" to destroy Social
Security. |
Bush:
Anti-repatriation from the start. Made much of this in Republican
debates.
Gore: At end of March says he backs special
legislation that would make it easier to keep Elián here. Claims
this has been his stance all along and has nothing to do with the
battle for the Cuban-American swing vote in Florida. Widely
disbelieved. |
| Prevailing Pundit View of
Campaigns: |
Bush: Convention coverage still infused with the message, "we're looking at the winning team." But also preparing for the pundit backlash and revisionism of the coming month -- otherwise, how could the race seem close? Choice of Cheney initially suggests confidence -- Bush can look toward a "governing" Vice President, not a "campaigning" one. But does it also suggest narrowness and staleness? Potential time bombs in convention endorsement by Ma Bush and Stormin' Norman -- "wouldn't it be great to have another President George Bush." Wasn't this what we got rid of with King George III?
Gore: Things have to get better, soon. For sportsmanship reasons, pundits will be ready to give him a favorable look at the Democratic convention.
|
Bush: Mild, respectful critiques through the past
month, written in the "Well, they're not perfect" tone of sports
articles about the team nonetheless favored to win the Super Bowl.
Absence of big, debate-type events spares Bush the moments where he's
proven most likely to stumble. Instead he winningly chats up
reporters on the plane and supporters at dinners. Betting pool at
pundit central would surely show 2-to-1 expectation of Bush
victory.
Gore: Would never admit it in their
coverage, but most reporters don't think he can come back. Double
whammy: he seems not to get credit for economic boom (which people
have gotten so accustomed to that they freak out over gasoline
prices), and, Gore's lack of intrinsic charm-the-onlooker skills now
thought to be decisive. Killer data point: Bush has many people who
obviously have risked everything trying to get him elected. Almost no
true believers around Gore. |
Bush: Wonkery is overrated! Most press reports sound
amused and charmed rather than testy about Bush's ability to rise
above the details. He is making himself look more like Reagan and
less like Quayle. Only explicit cautionary note is the 1988 parallel
(see below). Unstated caution is that if opinion is so positive now,
it's bound to change.
Gore: Remember 1988! The bad
news for Gore is: no matter what he does, he never seems to make the
press warm to him, or get crowds excited. The good news is: the last
time a Vice President was in this predicament -- lackluster support,
far behind a challenger in June, tepid appearance compared to
incumbent president -- he came back to win. This is the Lesson of '88
that appeared in many stories in late May. |
Bush: Things are getting better! Hyper-cautious
press-relations strategy in the primary season made for crabby press
coverage. Now a charm-and-accessibility offensive is paying off. End
of primary debates means no attacks from fellow Republicans and no
exposure to annoying knowledge tests. McCain rapprochement lacks
warmth and sincerity but at least ends open hostilities. Upbeat,
affable personality is coming to the fore. How soon until we hear the
term "Reaganesque"?
Gore: Things are getting worse.
Drift of the economy and markets adds nervous background threat to
what has been Gore's killer issue. Speaking of killers, beginning of
nasty pundit reaction against Gore's tough-guy campaign tactics. The
more nostalgic even his enemies grow about Clinton's bravado, the
bigger the image problem for Gore. |
Bush: After the Republican primary, things can only
get better. That is, unless the costs of the primary -- using tons of
money, embracing the far right to beat McCain, leaving McCain angry,
sounding dopey in debates -- carry over and prove too burdensome
against Gore.
Gore: After the Democratic primary,
things can only get worse. That is, unless the strengths he developed
in the primary -- relentless demolition of opponents, unified party
behind him -- carry over and prove decisive against
Bush. |
| Best
Issue: |
Bush: Peace and prosperity still working in his favor, the weirdness of which is starting to wear off. If everything is ticking along, why not vote for the candidate you can most easily imagine seeing on TV, which right now is Bush. Issues cupboard amazingly bare at GOP convention. Typical rally sign: "Rebuild military morale!"
Bush also benefits from strange image flip in which Gore, not Bush, has become the "elitist" candidate in the race.
Gore: Election will turn on his ability to demonstrate that the bland, Eisenhower-like embrace of the GOP convention is a ruse. If he gets to run against Dick Armey, Newt Gingrich, and Strom Thurmond, he wins. If he has to run against Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice, he loses. |
Bush: Weirdly, peace and prosperity starting to cut
in his favor. Everyone knows the economy has been booming. Polls
starting to indicate that many people think Republicans have a better
chance of keeping it that way.
Gore: His campaign
acts as if the prescription-drug issue is the secret weapon. This may
in turn reflect interest-group math of directly addressing different
constituencies. (Hey, Elián didn't help in Florida; maybe
drug-price controls will.) Emerging issue may be Supreme Court
nominations. This is the one way that volatile "social" issues,
mainly abortion, have political outlet. |
Bush: Jiu-jitsu of that discredited stalwart,
"Clinton fatigue." Public does not seem tired of Clinton himself, who
would win a third term if eligible. But Bush trying to make them
tired of Gore. Emergent possible strong issue: nuke-reduction plan
that wins praise from liberals.
Gore: Our old
friends, peace and prosperity (NASDAQ still down, but so is
unemployment, which matters more for election). Plus background
concerns about Bush's experience: in weird reversal of roles, Gore
attacks Bush's plan to reduce nuke arsenals as "risky" and a sign of
naive thinking. Unclear as of June 1 whether this will aggravate
Bush's vulnerability (know-nothing reputation) or Gore's
(reflexive-attacker reputation). |
Bush: No one "issue" in the dull old policy sense but
instead renewed appreciation of personal charm -- and Republican
sense that perhaps he can win.
Gore: See last month;
also, guns. |
Bush: Education
reform.
Gore: Stay-the-course with peace and
prosperity. |
| Biggest
Vulnerability: |
Bush: Same as before -- but with new "daddy's boy" element highlighted by convention. Colin Powell gives Democrats their opening, with line in convention speech saying Republicans shouldn't resent a few minority students getting ahead because of affirmative action, when there are plenty of other unfair preferences around. Powell was shrewd enough not to end the comparison the predictable way: "... when the halfwit offspring of rich alumni donors are guaranteed admission."
Gore: No change. |
Bush: Exactly the same as one month
ago.
Gore: Ditto. |
Bush: He's been coasting in the absence of debates.
What will happen when he's pushed by questioners -- or
Gore?
Gore: There's no polite way to put this: he's
not very good at the basic political job of making people like
him. |
Bush: On the wrong side of several
divisive issues, notably guns.
Gore: Intensified
version of last month's concerns. Biggest asset has been ability to
attack opponents; adjustments called for if that becomes a
liability. |
Bush: Lightweight
cheerleader image.
Gore: Nixonian win-at-any-cost
image, plus Clintonian pander-bear
tendencies. |
| Political
Nightmare: |
Bush: Gloves-off grudge match between Daddy and Bill Clinton, turning the election into a re-run of 1992.
Gore: Gloves-off attack on Bushes père and fils by Gore himself, rather than by the artful Clinton, in a way that leaves Gore looking like the heavy. |
Bush: Embrace of extreme right wing less
imminent-seeming problem right now. Things are going so well that the
only potential problem is revelation of character or temperament
issue: angry outburst at question, laughing at the next execution,
some bonehead answer to foreign-policy
question.
Gore: Appointment of Buddhist temple
special prosecutor. Otherwise, living the nightmare
now. |
Bush: Endorsement
from KKK, Charlton Heston, Jesse Helms, all on the same
day.
Gore: Unchanged. Plus, the unveiling of a new
"new Gore" at the beginning of every month, as polls suggest the old
"new Gore" isn't selling.
|
Bush: With no debates scheduled, next nightmare is
another outburst of schoolyard carnage, by 8-year-olds carrying
gun-show Uzis.
Gore: Unchanged. |
Bush: Bonehead comment during debate or press
conference. Endorsement from David Duke.
Gore: Dow
Jones average at 5300 and gas at $3.80 a gallon on Election Day.
Also, new fundraising scandal. |
| VP
Prospects: |
Bush: Immediate reaction to Cheney positive: "solid fellow," no need to worry about Bush's lack of foreign-policy experience, etc. Second round: strained attempt to make him seem a right-wing zealot, when he has been a Washington, D.C., apparatchik. Potential third round: symbol of cautious, backward-looking, Restoration campaign?
Gore: Money is increasingly on Bob Graham of Florida. Gephardt also a contender. Pundit backflip: if Gephardt took it, that would be a heartening sign for the Democrats in itself, since he would have decided it was worth giving up potential role as Speaker of the House for the race. |
Bush: A month from now we'll know, and in the
meantime, he's being very discreet. Small tap-dance around the
continuing McCain dream. Tom Ridge boomlet.
Gore:
Bill Richardson's star dims, as he's made to handle all of the
Administration's messy problems. |
Bush: Time declares John Danforth -- former
Senator, Episcopal priest, embodiment of rectitude -- the dream
match. As long as Powell remains unavailable. Dick Cheney, former
Ford chief of staff, in charge of the search.
Gore:
No movement. |
Bush: Despite
Shermanesque denials, the dream has shifted to McCain. "Actual" list
expanding with coy hints from Bill Bennett.
Gore: Coy
hints from George Mitchell. Otherwise the same. |
Bush: Dream candidate number one: Colin Powell.
Number two: John McCain. Others actually available: Elizabeth Dole,
George Pataki, Tom Ridge, John Engler, etc.
Gore:
Dream candidate: Bill Clinton. Actually available: Bill Richardson,
Evan Bayh, Dianne Feinstein, etc. |
| All-Out Media Supporters: |
Bush: Same.
Gore: Still waiting. |
Bush: Wall Street Journal
editorial page reliably in his corner, now that the confusion of the
primaries is past.
Gore: Some pro-Gore piece is due
to appear somewhere next month, on contrarian grounds if for no other
reason. The New Republic has some serious and sympathetic
pieces. |
Bush: May have to
retire this category, if the press remains as standoffish toward both
as now seems to be the case. But Bush did himself a huge favor with
his performance on Hardball, where he spent an hour seeming
affable and relaxed in the presence of Chris
Matthews.
Gore: More and more heard from Bob Somerby,
professional humorist who was Gore's college roommate (along with
Tommy Lee Jones) and who writes truth-squad letters to publications
that attack Gore. |
Bush: General
warming trend from the conservative press, led by Wall Street
Journal.
Gore: Unchanged. Astonishing posy from
William Safire, who in a column says that Gore has "wit," in contrast
to Clinton's cruder "humor." |
Bush: None yet evident. Many conservative columnists
were plumping hard for McCain.
Gore: Martin Peretz
(owner of The New Republic). |
| All-Out Media Enemies: |
No movement. May retire category unless things heat up. |
Bush: The late-night comedians are
actually his biggest problem, reinforcing the lightweight image. On
the other hand, Clinton survived their unending "fat boy" "lecher"
jokes.
Gore: Two categories: righ-wing press, from
Wall Street Journal to Weekly Standard, hitting him on
policy. Rest of the press just cold to
him. |
No
movement. |
Bush: Republican
critics beginning to pull their punches.
Gore: Jacob
Weisberg of Slate not an enemy but has written an icy,
unloving analysis of Gore's ruthless campaign style. |
Bush: Numerous predictable ones. Unexpected hostility
from conservatives (and ex-McCain supporters) William Safire, Charles
Krauthammer, William Kristol. Mockery from Maureen
Dowd.
Gore: Numerous. Wall Street Journal
editorial page and Rush Limbaugh least surprising and most
committed.
|
| Sleeper
Issues: |
Nader still percolating along, with sophisticated ad campaign in the state where he can make the most difference: California. Other sleeper issue, electric power, also percolating in California, with widespread brownouts as the month begins.
Glimmer-in-the-eye issues: Trade deficit (up, up, up)? Illegal immigration (ditto)? Rebuilding military morale? GOP platform's approval of anti-sodomy laws that would put Cheney's daughter in jail? |
Ralph
Nader shifts from sleeper to front-and-center issue. Nader agrees
that he and Gore are competing for the same votes (though his riff
is, Gore is taking votes away from him rather than vice versa) and
says flat-out that he wouldn't care if his candidacy effectively
sealed the win for Bush. Gore doesn't even waste time trying to charm
Nader into his camp: a spokesman unwisely dismisses Nader, to Sam
Verhovek of The New York Times, as a "66 year old Corvair
about to get rear-ended."
Still in sleeper status is the
prospect of electric-system brownouts through the summer, suggesting
one more vulnerability of high-tech/new-economy
America. |
A new category. In this
case the role of third-party candidates, notably Pat Buchanan and
Ralph Nader. How seriously will they be covered? Whom will they help
and hurt? In the last two elections, Ross Perot was widely assumed to
have hurt the Republicans. But this time Nader in particular could
draw leftie voters unenthusiastic about Gore. |
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