Previously in Fallows@large: Time Capsule: May (May 12, 2000) The second installment of James Fallows's Election 2000 Time Capsule Project. The Fascination of What's "Obvious" (April 6, 2000) James Fallows introduces the Election 2000 Time Capsule Project -- an informal and proudly unscientific means of tracking the conventional political wisdom through the campaign season. The first in a series of regular online dispatches from The Atlantic's national correspondent. More on politics in Atlantic Unbound and The Atlantic Monthly Join a discussion on Fallows@large and the Time Capsule Project in the Election 2000 conference of Post & Riposte.

An informal and proudly unscientific means of tracking the conventional political wisdom through the campaign season by James Fallows June 7, 2000 The idea that life has sped up is hardly original, but it has already had amazing impact in this election year. The cycle-time for shifts in conventional wisdom has become so swift that it's as if every race for every office starts afresh each week. Reporters are constantly looking for new angles on the candidates and their prospects. That's always been true. But this year the presence of extra-fast feedback loops, through the Internet and twenty-four-hour news outlets, and the absence of apparently urgent issues dividing the electorate into clear, stable blocs means that handicappers' opinions have become more volatile than ever before. Thus Rudy Giuliani can practically vanish from political discussions two weeks after he commanded front-page attention about his marital and medical problems -- and Rick Lazio can go from anonymity to impending overexposure in the same brief time. The Internet has played a crucial role in this process by, in effect, bringing all of the nation's political reporters onto the "bus." When Timothy Crouse wrote The Boys on the Bus, about the 1972 presidential campaign, he was referring to the handful of hardboiled pro reporters who rode the literal campaign bus and compared impressions each day. With Net postings, reporters all around the country can be part of the same "Okay, what do we think about Gore today?" process. Apart from the Giuliani-Lazio-Hillary triangle, the volatility has been most intense in the presidential race. At the beginning of April, George W. Bush looked hopelessly beaten-up and ill-positioned, as a result of the way he won his primary campaign. By early May the primary-campaign stigma had been vaporized and Bush had a cheerful party behind him. Then, just before the beginning of June, a panel of political scientists issued a gentle reminder that if Bush were to win, it would be a true historical anomaly, since the country almost never turns out the incumbent party when the public is fat -- oops, that's prosperous -- and happy. So this year the electorate will either do something it's never done before, throwing out the Ins while the economy is still strong, or it will do something that's almost as rare: electing a candidate, namely Gore, for whom as of June 1 there is little visible enthusiasm even in his own party. Political Readings as of June 1, 2000 This list will be updated around the first of every month until Election Day. Note: The unemployment, inflation, and trade-deficit data are the latest figures released by the beginning of each month, often with a reporting delay of a month or two. For instance, the latest trade figures available as of June 1, 2000, were for March, 2000. But the figures noted here are the latest ones each candidate, and the electorate, has to deal with as of the start of each relevant month. The price of oil is the NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil price per barrel.

Readings June 1 May 1 April 1 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 10652 (-1.5% from previous month) 10812 (-1% from previous month) 10980 NASDAQ: 3582 (-9.5% from previous month; -19.7% since April 1) 3958 (-12%) 4458 Unemployment Rate: 4.1% 3.9% 4.1% Inflation (CPI): 3.7% 3.7% 3.2% Price of Oil: $30.13 per barrel $25.87 per barrel $26.90 per barrel Monthly Trade Deficit: $30.2 billion $29.2 billion $28.0 Billion Political Flap of the Day: Several came and went during the month without retaining full "flap" status as of June 1. Ten days earlier, permanent trading rights for China seemed the most complexly divisive issue of the campaign so far. Clinton Administration, George W. Bush, and congressional Republicans on one side; labor and labor's man, Al Gore, on the other. (Gore was officially for the bill, meanwhile winking hard at labor.) But when the bill passed with a surprisingly comfortable margin, Gore was plunged back into Elián territory. That is, for political purposes he'd kept his distance from the Administration and ended up looking like he'd postured for no reason, as his side lost the vote and the PR battle. Gun control also rose and fell within the month, with the Million Mom March (and counter-efforts by the NRA). Microsoft controversy becoming more and more about Microsoft rather than about the Administration's management of the tech economy. Bush proposals on Social Security have emerging flap status. What was that kid's name, again? For several days after the bloodless-but-frightening commando raid Elián seemed to have potential as a lasting issue. But outrage and attention dwindled, and Republicans grew antsy even about holding hearings. Headed for complete non-factor status by Election Day. Instead a pileup of issues with political potential: the Microsoft breakup; guns in general, highlighted by the Million Mom March; Social Security reform yet again; trade relations with China; and the strange growth of Clinton nostalgia. Elián Gonzalez: Initially a balance between family values and political freedom. By now a bizarre test of federal authority: will Miami officials really urge defiance of federal marshals if the INS says Elián belongs back with his father? Op-ed column in The New York Times calls Miami "out-of-control banana republic" inside the United States. Bill Clinton and Janet Reno, neither running for re-election, support INS and judicial rulings to repatriate Elián. Candidates' Positions on Current Flap: Bush: He let China debate unfold without deep engagement, and let NRA fight back against Million Moms. Bush realizes that Charlton Heston's declaration of war on Al Gore is probably Gore's best news of the month. Under pressure to be more specific about Social Security plans. Gore: Hopes no one mentions China again for the rest of the year. Crucial hope is Social Security -- the more volatile the market in the next few months, the stronger the background queasiness about putting Social Security funds there. Meanwhile, opening new charm offensive with proposals for mental-health care and cancer programs. Bush: Most of these issues cutting his way right now. Last month's Elián flap all to the good from his point of view: he was consistent, but not so far out on a limb as to be embarrassed by success of raid. Bush is in good shape on Microsoft -- if it drives a market crash, he can blame it on the Democrats -- and he's losing no support by backing China trade. Guns are his big problem, threatening his appeal to center and women's vote. Gore: Gore caught in triple back-flip pander on the Elián issue: first changed his position to appeal to Florida Cubans; then criticized his own Administration when the raid looked like it would cause a stink; then was left somewhat chagrined by that stand as the issue went away. Lying low on Microsoft and praying (perhaps to Buddhist deities) that it does not prove to be the domino that undoes the 1990s boom. Sticking with the Administration on China. Pushing hard to portray Bush as the pawn of the NRA, and as the agent of a "secret plan" to destroy Social Security. Bush: Anti-repatriation from the start. Made much of this in Republican debates. Gore: At end of March says he backs special legislation that would make it easier to keep Elián here. Claims this has been his stance all along and has nothing to do with the battle for the Cuban-American swing vote in Florida. Widely disbelieved. Prevailing Pundit View of Campaigns: Bush: Wonkery is overrated! Most press reports sound amused and charmed rather than testy about Bush's ability to rise above the details. He is making himself look more like Reagan and less like Quayle. Only explicit cautionary note is the 1988 parallel (see below). Unstated caution is that if opinion is so positive now, it's bound to change. Gore: Remember 1988! The bad news for Gore is: no matter what he does, he never seems to make the press warm to him, or get crowds excited. The good news is: the last time a vice president was in this predicament -- lackluster support, far behind a challenger in June, tepid appearance compared to incumbent president -- he came back to win. This is the Lesson of '88 that appeared in many stories in late May. Bush: Things are getting better! Hyper-cautious press-relations strategy in the primary season made for crabby press coverage. Now a charm-and-accessibility offensive is paying off. End of primary debates means no attacks from fellow Republicans and no exposure to annoying knowledge tests. McCain rapprochement lacks warmth and sincerity but at least ends open hostilities. Upbeat, affable personality is coming to the fore. How soon until we hear the term "Reaganesque"? Gore: Things are getting worse. Drift of the economy and markets adds nervous background threat to what has been Gore's killer issue. Speaking of killers, beginning of nasty pundit reaction against Gore's tough-guy campaign tactics. The more nostalgic even his enemies grow about Clinton's bravado, the bigger the image problem for Gore. Bush: After the Republican primary, things can only get better. That is, unless the costs of the primary -- using tons of money, embracing the far right to beat McCain, leaving McCain angry, sounding dopey in debates -- carry over and prove too burdensome against Gore. Gore: After the Democratic primary, things can only get worse. That is, unless the strengths he developed in the primary -- relentless demolition of opponents, unified party behind him -- carry over and prove decisive against Bush. Best Issue: Bush: Jiu-jitsu of that discredited stalwart, "Clinton fatigue." Public does not seem tired of Clinton himself, who would win a third term if eligible. But Bush trying to make them tired of Gore. Emergent possible strong issue: nuke-reduction plan that wins praise from liberals. Gore: Our old friends, peace and prosperity (NASDAQ still down, but so is unemployment, which matters more for election). Plus background concerns about Bush's experience: in weird reversal of roles, Gore attacks Bush's plan to reduce nuke arsenals as "risky" and a sign of naive thinking. Unclear as of June 1 whether this will aggravate Bush's vulnerability (know-nothing reputation) or Gore's (reflexive-attacker reputation). Bush: No one "issue" in the dull old policy sense but instead renewed appreciation of personal charm -- and Republican sense that perhaps he can win. Gore: See last month; also, guns. Bush: Education reform. Gore: Stay-the-course with peace and prosperity. Biggest Vulnerability: Bush: He's been coasting in the absence of debates. What will happen when he's pushed by questioners -- or Gore? Gore: There's no polite way to put this: he's not very good at the basic political job of making people like him. Bush: On the wrong side of several divisive issues, notably guns. Gore: Intensified version of last month's concerns. Biggest asset has been ability to attack opponents; adjustments called for if that becomes a liability. Bush: Lightweight cheerleader image. Gore: Nixonian win-at-any-cost image, plus Clintonian pander-bear tendencies. Political Nightmare: Bush: Endorsement from KKK, Charlton Heston, Jesse Helms, all on the same day. Gore: Unchanged. Plus, the unveiling of a new "new Gore" at the beginning of every month, as polls suggest the old "new Gore" isn't selling. Bush: With no debates scheduled, next nightmare is another outburst of schoolyard carnage, by 8-year-olds carrying gun-show Uzis. Gore: Unchanged. Bush: Bonehead comment during debate or press conference. Endorsement from David Duke. Gore: Dow Jones average at 5300 and gas at $3.80 a gallon on Election Day. Also, new fundraising scandal. VP Prospects: Bush: Time declares John Danforth -- former Senator, Episcopal priest, embodiment of rectitude -- the dream match. As long as Powell remains unavailable. Dick Cheney, former Ford chief of staff, in charge of the search. Gore: No movement. Bush: Despite Shermanesque denials, the dream has shifted to McCain. "Actual" list expanding with coy hints from Bill Bennett. Gore: Coy hints from George Mitchell. Otherwise the same. Bush: Dream candidate number one: Colin Powell. Number two: John McCain. Others actually available: Elizabeth Dole, George Pataki, Tom Ridge, John Engler, etc. Gore: Dream candidate: Bill Clinton. Actually available: Bill Richardson, Evan Bayh, Dianne Feinstein, etc. All-Out Media Supporters: Bush: May have to retire this category, if the press remains as standoffish toward both as now seems to be the case. But Bush did himself a huge favor with his performance on Hardball, where he spent an hour seeming affable and relaxed in the presence of Chris Matthews. Gore: More and more heard from Bob Somerby, professional humorist who was Gore's college roommate (along with Tommy Lee Jones) and who writes truth-squad letters to publications that attack Gore. Bush: General warming trend from the conservative press, led by Wall Street Journal. Gore: Unchanged. Astonishing posy from William Safire, who in a column says that Gore has "wit," in contrast to Clinton's cruder "humor." Bush: None yet evident. Many conservative columnists were plumping hard for McCain. Gore: Martin Peretz (owner of The New Republic). All-Out Media Enemies: No movement. Bush: Republican critics beginning to pull their punches. Gore: Jacob Weisberg of Slate not an enemy but has written an icy, unloving analysis of Gore's ruthless campaign style. Bush: Numerous predictable ones. Unexpected hostility from conservatives (and ex-McCain supporters) William Safire, Charles Krauthammer, William Kristol. Mockery from Maureen Dowd. Gore: Numerous. Wall Street Journal editorial page and Rush Limbaugh least surprising and most committed. Sleeper Issue: A new category. In this case the role of third-party candidates, notably Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader. How seriously will they be covered? Whom will they help and hurt? In the last two elections, Ross Perot was widely assumed to have hurt the Republicans. But this time Nader in particular could draw leftie voters unenthusiastic about Gore.

Join a discussion on Fallows@large and the Time Capsule Project in the Election 2000 conference of Post & Riposte. More on politics and society in Atlantic Unbound and The Atlantic Monthly. James Fallows is The Atlantic's national correspondent and the author, most recently, of Breaking the News: How the Media Undermine American Democracy (1996). All material copyright © 2000 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved.