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An informal and proudly unscientific means of tracking the conventional political wisdom through the campaign season. The second in a series of regular online dispatches from The Atlantic's national correspondent by James Fallows May 12, 2000 This update is tardy, for reasons connected with the production of the paper magazine; but as they say in the software industry, the delayed appearance is a feature, not a bug. (Statistical data is as of May 1; other categories reflect happenings through May 8.) The first week of May included the event that put a cap on the general positive trend for George Bush through the month: his uncomfortable-but-nonetheless-accomplished joint appearance with John McCain. No one who saw the two of them together would mistake this for any kind of love match, but it continues the rehabilitation of Bush among the party's organization and is one more good development in a period that held almost no bad signs for him. Al Gore's best hope lies in the inevitable cyclical nature of political news coverage. If Bush has to stage a surge at some point, it's better, from Gore's point of view, that it happen now than in October. Political Readings as of May 1, 2000 This list will be updated around the first of every month until Election Day. Note: The unemployment, inflation, and trade-deficit data are the latest figures released by the beginning of each month, often with a reporting delay of a month or two. For instance, the latest trade figures available as of May 1, 2000, were for February, 2000. But the figures noted here are the latest ones each candidate, and the electorate, has to deal with as of the start of each relevant month. The price of oil is the NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil price per barrel. Readings May 1 April 1 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 10812 (-1% from previous month) 10980 NASDAQ: 3958 (-12%) 4458 Unemployment Rate: 4.1% 4.1% Inflation (CPI): 3.7% 3.2% Price of Oil: $25.87 per barrel $26.90 per barrel Monthly Trade Deficit: $29.2 billion $28.0 Billion Political Flap of the Day: What was that kid's name, again? For several days after the bloodless-but-frightening commando raid Elián seemed to have potential as a lasting issue. But outrage and attention dwindled, and Republicans grew antsy even about holding hearings. Headed for complete non-factor status by Election Day. Instead a pileup of issues with political potential: the Microsoft breakup; guns in general, highlighted by the Million Mom March; Social Security reform yet again; trade relations with China; and the strange growth of Clinton nostalgia. Elián Gonzalez: Initially a balance between family values and political freedom. By now a bizarre test of federal authority: will Miami officials really urge defiance of federal marshals if the INS says Elián belongs back with his father? Op-ed column in The New York Times calls Miami "out-of-control banana republic" inside the United States. Bill Clinton and Janet Reno, neither running for re-election, support INS and judicial rulings to repatriate Elián. Candidates' Positions on Current Flap: Bush: Most of these issues cutting his way right now. Last month's Elián flap all to the good from his point of view: he was consistent, but not so far out on a limb as to be embarrassed by success of raid. Bush is in good shape on Microsoft -- if it drives a market crash, he can blame it on the Democrats -- and he's losing no support by backing China trade. Guns are his big problem, threatening his appeal to center and women's vote. Gore: Gore caught in triple back-flip pander on the Elián issue: first changed his position to appeal to Florida Cubans; then criticized his own Administration when the raid looked like it would cause a stink; then was left somewhat chagrined by that stand as the issue went away. Lying low on Microsoft and praying (perhaps to Buddhist deities) that it does not prove to be the domino that undoes the 1990s boom. Sticking with the Administration on China. Pushing hard to portray Bush as the pawn of the NRA, and as the agent of a "secret plan" to destroy Social Security. Bush: Anti-repatriation from the start. Made much of this in Republican debates. Gore: At end of March says he backs special legislation that would make it easier to keep Elián here. Claims this has been his stance all along and has nothing to do with the battle for the Cuban-American swing vote in Florida. Widely disbelieved. Prevailing Pundit View of Campaigns: Bush: Things are getting better! Hyper-cautious press-relations strategy in the primary season made for crabby press coverage. Now a charm-and-accessibility offensive is paying off. End of primary debates means no attacks from fellow Republicans and no exposure to annoying knowledge tests. McCain rapprochement lacks warmth and sincerity but at least ends open hostilities. Upbeat, affable personality is coming to the fore. How soon until we hear the term "Reaganesque"? Gore: Things are getting worse. Drift of the economy and markets adds nervous background threat to what has been Gore's killer issue. Speaking of killers, beginning of nasty pundit reaction against Gore's tough-guy campaign tactics. The more nostalgic even his enemies grow about Clinton's bravado, the bigger the image problem for Gore. Bush: After the Republican primary, things can only get better. That is, unless the costs of the primary -- using tons of money, embracing the far right to beat McCain, leaving McCain angry, sounding dopey in debates -- carry over and prove too burdensome against Gore. Gore: After the Democratic primary, things can only get worse. That is, unless the strengths he developed in the primary -- relentless demolition of opponents, unified party behind him -- carry over and prove decisive against Bush. Best Issue: Bush: No one "issue" in the dull old policy sense but instead renewed appreciation of personal charm -- and Republican sense that perhaps he can win. Gore: See last month; also, guns. Bush: Education reform. Gore: Stay-the-course with peace and prosperity. Biggest Vulnerability: Bush: On the wrong side of several divisive issues, notably guns. Gore: Intensified version of last month's concerns. Biggest asset has been ability to attack opponents; adjustments called for if that becomes a liability. Bush: Lightweight cheerleader image. Gore: Nixonian win-at-any-cost image, plus Clintonian pander-bear tendencies. Political Nightmare: Bush: With no debates scheduled, next nightmare is another outburst of schoolyard carnage, by 8-year-olds carrying gun-show Uzis. Gore: Unchanged. Bush: Bonehead comment during debate or press conference. Endorsement from David Duke. Gore: Dow Jones average at 5300 and gas at $3.80 a gallon on Election Day. Also, new fundraising scandal. VP Prospects: Bush: Despite Shermanesque denials, the dream has shifted to McCain. "Actual" list expanding with coy hints from Bill Bennett. Gore: Coy hints from George Mitchell. Otherwise the same. Bush: Dream candidate number one: Colin Powell. Number two: John McCain. Others actually available: Elizabeth Dole, George Pataki, Tom Ridge, John Engler, etc. Gore: Dream candidate: Bill Clinton. Actually available: Bill Richardson, Evan Bayh, Dianne Feinstein, etc. All-Out Media Supporters: Bush: General warming trend from the conservative press, led by Wall Street Journal. Gore: Unchanged. Astonishing posy from William Safire, who in a column says that Gore has "wit," in contrast to Clinton's cruder "humor." Bush: None yet evident. Many conservative columnists were plumping hard for McCain. Gore: Martin Peretz (owner of The New Republic). All-Out Media Enemies: Bush: Republican critics beginning to pull their punches. Gore: Jacob Weisberg of Slate not an enemy but has written an icy, unloving analysis of Gore's ruthless campaign style. Bush: Numerous predictable ones. Unexpected hostility from conservatives (and ex-McCain supporters) William Safire, Charles Krauthammer, William Kristol. Mockery from Maureen Dowd. Gore: Numerous. Wall Street Journal editorial page and Rush Limbaugh least surprising and most committed. Join a discussion on Fallows@large and the Time Capsule Project in the Election 2000 conference of Post & Riposte. More on politics and society in Atlantic Unbound and The Atlantic Monthly. James Fallows is The Atlantic's national correspondent and the author, most recently, of Breaking the News: How the Media Undermine American Democracy (1996). All material copyright © 2000 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved.